01
Step one: the routing guide waterfall
Primary rejects; the TMS offers the load to backup one, then backup two. MIT research on historical truckload data measured backup-carrier prices at roughly 9–12% above contract; treat that as a benchmark, not a quote. Each pass also burns hours on the clock before the appointment.
02
Step two: spot
If the guide is exhausted, the load goes to the spot market at roughly 23–35% above contract in MIT’s data, often with a carrier no one on your team has vetted, and frequently late.
03
The hidden costs
Expedite charges to recover the appointment, retail chargebacks for missed windows, staff hours, and a line or store waiting on product. None of that shows in the rate file.
04
Why it happens
Rate set below the market, freight the primary cannot plan around, short lead time, appointment windows that are not legally achievable, or a provider that never owned a truck to begin with.
05
What to do about it
Track fall-through by lane and provider. Move steady lanes to asset carriers that can commit trucks. Pay detention from documented timestamps so carriers keep saying yes. Re-bid lanes with chronic rejection instead of living with them.